Decision 2024: What Happened?
Seamus O’Sullivan and Taylor Whitaker
In the early hours of November 6th, Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the 47th President of the United States.
Many elections focus on the handful of states referred to as “swing states.” These states switch from one candidate to another in any given election year. This year’s election had seven swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona.
From issues about the economy to immigration, Trump supporters seemed to show up in droves, while Harris’s fell short. People saw an opportunity for a change in administration and took it. Not only did Trump win the popular vote, a feat unreached by republicans in 20 years, but won all seven swing states and their respective electors.
“One pattern that seems to be emerging is that incumbent parties (like Democrats in the U.S.) have had a harder time winning,” said Political Science Chair and Professor, Mike Nelson. “Trump benefited by not being the incumbent this time, and by controlling the message on the economy and immigration.”
One key focus during the last couple election cycles has been the colloquially known “Blue Wall,” a region consisting of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The region earned the name when the region went Democrat in every election from 1992 to 2012. Many assumed the trend would continue in 2016 but were shocked when Trump won all three. In 2020, however, Joe Biden returned these states back under democratic control. These states are crucial in recent history, whichever candidate took the three “Blue Wall” states also won the election. Trump continued the trend by winning all three states in this election.
Nevada and Arizona historically aren’t swing states and were Democrat and Republican strongholds. However, Biden flipped these states blue in 2020. The trend was short lived after Trump won both states this year, in part due to the increase of Latino voters in certain communities in Arizona.
The same can be said about Georgia and North Carolina. Biden claimed Georgia in 2020 due to high voter turnout in Atlanta, the most liberal part of Georgia; voter turnout declined in this year, giving it back to Trump. North Carolina has been historically Republican, but the migration of college educated people to the state led many to believe North Carolina would shift blue. The prediction was wrong, and Trump won North Carolina too.
With a new administration, it’s difficult to predict what the next four years may look like. “With recent elections, there have been big swings between presidential administrations on issues ranging from the environment to the economy. I think the new Trump administration will be more capable at putting forward his agenda than he was last time,” said Nelson. “His supporters will likely enjoy his initial moves on immigration and border security, attempt to cut taxes, and the short-term benefits to businesses who favor deregulation.”