Big night for Democrats, but the fundamentals still rule, analyst says
Seamus O'Sullivan - Features Editor
Democrats saw major victories across the country last Tuesday, sweeping gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and securing the New York City mayor’s office with Zohran Mamdani’s historic win. While many national headlines cast the results as a major shift in the political mood, Monmouth College political science lecturer Robin Johnson says the picture is a little more complicated.
“I hesitate to draw too many far-reaching conclusions about this,” Johnson said. “Off-year elections tend to favor the party not controlling the White House, and that held again this year.” He noted that both Virginia and New Jersey are “purple states” where Democrats had an edge from the start, and that their winning candidates were more centrist, unlike Mamdani, who is more of a Democratic Socialist.
“Zohran Mamdani Speaking at a DSA 101 Meeting at the Church of the Village in NYC” by Bingjiefu He is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
Still, Johnson said one of the biggest takeaways from this election cycle was the voter turnout. “New York City was the biggest, I think, since the 1960s,” he said. “Turnout was really big in key areas in New Jersey and Virginia.”
Another key factor, according to Johnson, was the Latino vote, which showed new signs of movement back toward Democrats after shifting Republican in 2024. “They’re wanting government to address their issues,” he explained. “Their number one issue right now is affordability, not immigration. I don’t doubt one bit that they’ll go back and vote Republican next year if they think Republicans are better addressing their core concerns.”
The results in California also drew national attention, with voters passing Proposition 50 to allow mid-decade redistricting, a move Johnson says could have unpredictable effects on congressional balance. “It cancels Texas,” he said, noting both states redrew lines to benefit their parties. “It’s playing with dynamite, really. California just canceled out Texas at this point.”
Looking ahead, Johnson said the fundamentals suggest Democrats could keep their momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. “The party out of power tends to be more fired up,” he said. “Right now, the odds favor the Democrats, especially in the House.” Still, he warned that national conditions could easily shift. “If Trump takes more measures and Republicans pass more to ease this affordability crisis, they could make a stronger showing. It just all depends on what happens between now and then.”
For now, Democrats are celebrating a rare sweep, but Johnson’s analysis is a reminder that political tides can turn just as quickly as they rise.